The preliminary results of the European Parliament elections show that voters in the EU countries have mainly made national choices. The results per country are so large and so different that at the European level it can at most be concluded that the EU voters have moved a little to the right.
Moreover, an initial provisional distribution of seats shows that the balance of power within the European Parliament remains virtually unchanged: the three governing political formations (Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Liberals) retain their majority.
The EPP Christian Democrats are gaining seats, partly because parliament is being expanded from 705 to 720 seats. The S&D Social Democrats are maintaining approximately at the current level, but the liberal Renew coalition partner is suffering a loss. The Greens also suffer significant losses. With the current provisional result, those three governing factions can continue their coalition, and the reappointment of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is still possible.
In the coming months it should become clear whether the government leaders of the 27 EU countries (in their search for new EU commissioners) will allow these election results to be heard, or whether they will stick to 'the middle'. The faction leaders in the European Parliament also have to make such decisions: will it remain a three-party coalition or will they seek political support on their right or left?
The only uncertain factor is actually the question of how the conservative, right-wing, extreme right-wing and nationalist factions will group themselves. Together they won several dozen seats. But so far they are divided into three factions: the ECR conservatives, the ID right-wing extremists and the NI nationalists. But among them are a few 'big boys' such as the German AfD, the French RN and the Spanish VOX.
Five years ago there was talk of these parties joining together in one faction to form an influential group, but that was (until now) prevented by the egos and national strategies of political leaders such as the Hungarian Viktor Orban, the Italian Giorgia Meloni, the French Marine le Pen, the Dutch PVV member Geert Wilders and the controversial but great German AfD leaders.
It is also not yet known which faction they will join for several dozen 'individual' seats that have not yet been allocated. This often concerns one-person factions of small national parties. Some of them may still end up with the Liberals or the Greens.