At the European summit at the end of this month, the EU countries will decide to start accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. It is feared that the pro-Russian Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will try to stop this; he will be rotating EU chairman for the next six months.
The European Commission believes that Ukraine and Moldova are ready for EU accession talks. Both countries have implemented necessary reforms, such as tackling corruption and improving minority rights.
Now the decision lies with the EU member states, which must agree unanimously to start negotiations.
During a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron called for accession talks to begin this month.
Ukraine submitted its application for EU membership in February 2022, shortly after the start of the Russian war against that country. Moldova followed in March 2022. Both countries received candidate member status a year later, a remarkably quick decision for EU concepts, partly inspired by Moscow's aggression.
The European Commission also gave positive advice on Montenegro's candidacy last Friday. Brussels recommends that the EU governments hold an intergovernmental conference with Podgorica to approve the next phase of accession. Montenegro received this candidate status fifteen years ago.
Moreover, it is far from being said that Ukraine could become a EU member within one or two years, or that the country will first have to implement more reforms, which could take many years. It has also not yet been determined whether it will be a phased integration model, as was decided twenty years ago when admitting ten former Eastern Bloc countries.
It is clear that the EU will have to significantly overhaul the current common agricultural policy if agricultural superpower Ukraine is allowed to join the common market. It is expected that the entire system of EU agricultural subsidies will then also have to be revised.
With increased geopolitical pressure and internal divisions within the EU, the EU summit at the end of this month will be an important litmus test for European unity and its ability to respond to the changing security dynamics in Europe.