Floods following heavy rainfall in several Central European countries have so far killed at least twenty people and caused extensive damage. The large amounts of rain have been attributed to increased water temperatures in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Climatologists call this a consequence of global warming.
Thousands of Red Cross volunteers in Austria, the Czech Republic, Moldova, Poland and Romania are working around the clock to respond to the needs of affected people. In recent days, torrential rains have caused massive flooding in these countries, resulting in inundated homes, power outages, disruptions to transport and damaged infrastructure. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban has postponed a planned visit and speech to the European Parliament until October. In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has declared a state of emergency.
The European Parliament in Strasbourg is expected to discuss a possible aid operation for the affected areas on Wednesday or Thursday. Initially, the EU politicians had only put compensation for farmers on the agenda for the damage they suffered earlier this year due to heavy rainfall and early night frost. But the scale of the current, much larger disaster is forcing Brussels to take new steps.
There is still no clear picture of the extent of the flood disaster and the financial damage. Up until now, most reports have come from cities and villages, but there is still no overview of the countryside. The rivers that have burst their banks in Central Europe are mainly thundering through narrow streets in low-lying built-up areas, but in slightly higher rural areas entire meadows and fields are under (polluted) river water.
The television images of the current wild rivers show many similarities with the floods that hit parts of Germany and Belgium a few years ago, even as far as Valkenburg (Netherlands).
“As Europe warms much faster than the rest of the world, we are facing a possible future in which such floods will no longer be called historic, but frequent or even annual. We must brace ourselves to adapt to this new reality,” says Andreas von Weissenberg, Head of Health, Disasters, Climate and Crises in Europe at the International Red Cross.
One of the hardest hit areas is Lower Austria, where 1,750 people have had to leave their homes and move into temporary shelters. Many of them experienced a similar crisis during the 2002 floods and now fear losing everything again.
In the Czech Republic, a dam on a reservoir has burst, and in Poland, a town of 40,000 has been ordered to evacuate. The mayor has urged residents to move to their attics.
In eastern Romania, floods have already claimed six lives. In the worst-hit counties of Galati and Vaslui, more than 5,000 homes have been flooded and hundreds of people have been evacuated. The Romanian Red Cross has distributed 20 tons of food and drinking water and has launched an appeal for donations to help the affected people.
Other countries in the region, including Germany, Hungary and Slovakia, remain on high alert, with Red Cross teams working with local authorities and ready to respond. Water levels – particularly in the Danube, Elbe and Oder rivers – are expected to reach peak levels later this week.
Climate scientists say they are concerned about the damage but not surprised by the intensity. Scientists are cautious about attributing the extreme rainfall to human influence, however, because there are so many factors that affect the water cycle. While it is well known that warmer air can hold more moisture, it also depends on how much water is available.
According to Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich, direct analyses of the floods in Central Europe showed that most of the water vapor came from the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Both of these areas have become warmer as a result of human-induced climate change, which is causing more water to evaporate into the air.
“On average, the intensity of heavy precipitation events increases by 7% for every degree of global warming,” she said. “We now have 1.2 degrees Celsius of global warming, which means that heavy precipitation events are on average 8% more intense.”