Early results from the grain harvests show that yields are significantly lower than previously expected in almost all European countries. The European Union is seeing the smallest wheat harvest since 2018.
Estimates for soft wheat production have fallen to 116.5 million tonnes, a significant drop compared to previous projections.
The lower yields are attributed to a combination of adverse weather conditions, such as persistent rainfall, drought and heat waves, as well as the impact of the Russian war in Ukraine. All of this not only leads to lower production, but also to concerns about the quality of the harvests. This will likely lead to higher grain prices in the near future.
In Germany, especially in the states of Baden and Lower Saxony, lower harvests are reported due to persistent rain and poor weather conditions, with reduced crop quality.
In Poland, a significant decrease in grain production is expected, especially compared to the previous year. The total grain yield in Poland is expected to be lower than in 2023, despite more land being sown.
Austria also reports lower harvests, with total production below expectations. Expectations for the wheat harvest have been revised, and the final yield is likely to be lower than initially forecast.
In Ukraine, the situation is more complex. Although the country has managed to increase its grain exports despite intensified Russian attacks, harvest expectations remain volatile. The National Bank of Ukraine has slightly increased its harvest forecasts, but it remains uncertain how the war and weather conditions will affect final production.
France, the largest wheat producer in the EU, reports a decline of 25% compared to last year, resulting in the smallest harvest since 1987.
In general, the situation on the grain markets is characterised by uncertainty and concerns about the sustainability of the harvests under the current circumstances. The coming weeks will be crucial for the final yields and the subsequent impact on European food prices.