Despite the war situation, Ukraine has built up an impressive agricultural sector that is in many ways more competitive than other agriculturally oriented European countries. With one of the largest areas of fertile agricultural land in Europe and a relatively low cost price, Ukraine is able to export large quantities of agricultural products to the EU.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorsky recently said that Ukraine could join the EU by the end of this decade (2029-2030) or soon after, provided that the country carries out significant reforms and adopts European legislation. The EU and Kyiv have recently started negotiations on this, with several options being discussed.
The EU is also starting to prepare for changes in trade and agricultural policies in light of Ukraine’s possible accession. The country will not only have to meet European standards, but will also have to further strengthen its domestic agricultural production and exports in order to become a major player in the EU.
Sikorsky stresses that Ukraine will play a major role in the EU economy and will have influence on European institutions in any case. However, the path to accession is complex and includes negotiations on agriculture and transport.
The Ukrainian side has already hinted at the possibility of early formal accession, with delayed/phased admission for the export of agricultural and food products. Such a phased admission was also used twenty years ago when ten former Eastern Bloc countries became members of the EU.
Some agriculturally oriented EU countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic believe that all details and specifics should be negotiated first, and want to link accession to that. Other agricultural countries such as Denmark, France and the Netherlands have not yet communicated a concrete position on this.
In addition to political prospects, Ukraine’s agricultural sector is crucial for both the country itself and the entire EU. The agricultural sector accounts for 17% of Ukraine’s GDP, and 70% of agricultural production is exported. Despite the current war, Ukraine has managed to maintain and even expand its agricultural production and exports.