According to the European Commission's forecast, European cow's milk production will continue to grow over the next nine years to 162 million tons. Cheese will benefit the most from the extra milk produced.
European cow's milk production will grow at 0.6% per year, according to figures from a study published by the European Commission last week. The cheese production will capture 30% of the additional EU milk volumes.
By 2030, the average production level in the European Union will continue to rise to 8,300 kg per cow, as productivity gaps between EU countries narrow, the report said.
However, employment in the milk sector is expected to decline. The report cites a workforce decrease of approximately 7% compared to 2020.
The share of organic milk production is expected to reach 10% in 2030, compared to 3.5% in 2018. Other systems, for example relying on grazing or feeding without GMOs, could also make progress, say the EU experts.
The EU expects that growth in New Zealand will be limited to 0.4% per year until 2030. In the United States, growth is expected to reach 0.8% per year.
At the same time, the value of European Union exports is expected to increase by about 3% per year. Half of this growth comes from the cheese trade, followed by skimmed milk powder (32%).
Over the next ten years, more dairy products could come from other production areas such as South America. “While these countries are likely to compete with highly price-oriented markets, high value-added products such as cheese and butter will be dominated by the European Union, New Zealand and partly the United States.