Among German farmers, the Christian Democratic CDU / CSU is no longer the most popular party, according to a new poll. For the first time in decades, the liberal FDP is now the party preference among German farmers, at around 24 percent. CDU / CSU does not score higher than 18 percent, if elections were to be held now.
The new investigation was held in February, shortly after the German coalition government passed a stricter animal welfare law. In two previous regional elections it appeared that the German farmers had become less loyal to the CDU. There were also many agricultural protests in German cities in February.
It is striking that almost four in ten (37%) farmers voters do not yet express a preference and are still floating. Given the stricter animal welfare law, announced restrictions on fertilizer application, and imminent agricultural changes, it is unlikely that hesitant German farmers will return to CDU / CSU after all.
In addition, the party board decided last week to hold on to the candidacy of party chairman Armin Laschert for the chancellorship, as the successor to the outgoing Angela Merkel. Laschert is hardly known outside its own federal state (North Rhine-Westphalia). That is not considered a vote-puller in many German commentaries.
The far-right AfD is in third place with 14%. The center-left SPD is still far out of the picture among German farmers, as is the left-radical Die Linke, both with less than 5%.
The Greens have 6% of the vote among farmers on a national scale, but are the second party in some states with about 20 percent. Moreover, with their female candidate for the chancellorship, Annalena Bärbock, they have an attractive alternative to the two old, gray gentlemen of two 'out-ruled' parties.
The federal elections of September 26 are therefore becoming increasingly important in the agricultural sector. Due to the poor opinion polls for both the CDU / CSU and the SPD, it is very unlikely that the current GroKo ('grand coalition') can continue to rule. In that case, Germany will have a three-party coalition.
There have already been good experiences with this in several federal states. The big question, however, is which three parties: the current two supplemented with one (Liberals or Greens), or one of the current ones supplemented with two newcomers (Liberals and Greens). In that case, the CDU / CSU can even end up in opposition. Moreover, a left-wing majority of SPD, Greens and Die Linke is also possible.