The split in the German 'traffic light coalition' does not yet provide clarity on a number of dormant legislative proposals. At most, there is some postponement, but not yet cancellation. And what a new German government will look like, and with what economic policy, is not yet much to say.
Proposals by Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens) for better animal welfare, new manure laws, stricter pesticide use and other environmental and climate laws have already been submitted to parliament and could be 'dealt with' in the coming months. Now they are being put on hold for a few months, but they are not off the table yet.
For the time being, there is a lot of uncertainty in German politics, and the situation can change every day. The first question is when elections should be held. Although there is now a break with the FDP, Scholz can temporarily continue to govern with a minority cabinet. He wants to make a decision in January and hold elections in March. The CDU opposition wants clarity this week.
The Chancellor has said he does not want the Bundestag to vote on a "confidence motion" until mid-January. Scholz says he wants to deal with a number of urgent matters first, such as the presentation of the 2025 budget next Thursday (whether that will go ahead is now uncertain).
The budget was largely drawn up by the dismissed Finance Minister Lindner, but the three coalition parties had not yet agreed on certain parts. It is not to be expected that the FDP will now vote for the budget.
In addition, Scholz (SPD) and Economics Minister Habeck (Greens) want to submit their economic stimulus plan to the Bundestag. With billions in investments, they want to breathe new life into the ailing German economy. The SPD and Greens also want the Bundestag to make decisions on expanding military aid to Ukraine.
If the vote of confidence in January (as expected) does not receive support from the FDP, Chancellor Scholz must present a new government within 60 days or call new elections. In theory, the SPD and Greens could form a (limited, temporary) coalition with the opposition until the original election date of late September. But CDU leader Friedrich Merz has already rejected that.
Recent opinion polls show that the CDU opposition could currently (with over 30%) become the largest party, but in eastern Germany the far-right AfD is the largest party. Moreover, the new BSW-Bündnis of Sahra Wagenknecht is strongly emerging there. In three eastern German states, after recent regional elections, work is already underway to form centre-right governments of CDU, BSW and AfD.