The split in Germany's centre-left coalition has halted the processing of a large number of bills. On 16 December, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will put a vote of confidence to the Bundestag, after which the Germans will go to the polls early on 23 February.
Last week, the CDU/CSU opposition said it was prepared to talk to the SPD about a reform of the so-called debt brake. Such an anti-inflation rule was the major stumbling block over which FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner was dismissed. CDU opposition leader Merz made it clear that he would not allow a minority coalition of SPD and Greens to 'continue to govern'.
But the cautious initial rapprochement between SPD and CDU/CSU emphatically does not apply to the handling of the agricultural laws of BMEL Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens). This applies, among other things, to the manure law that has been in preparation for four years, the extension of the animal welfare regulations and a possible government subsidy for the modernization of livestock barns. The revision of the milk price contracts is also postponed.
Merz has said that he wants to reach an agreement with the SPD before the elections on a few important economic and social laws. These include the continuation of the 'Deutschlandticket' (a nationwide bus and train pass costing a few tens of euros per month), an increase in social benefits, and an extension of military aid to Ukraine.
The CDU/CSU also does not seem to be putting up a blockade for the economic boost that Scholz is preparing with a number of top industrial figures. Economics Minister Robert Habeck (intended leader of the Greens) also recently presented his own economic recovery plan.
Opposition leader Merz made it clear last week that the CDU/CSU will absolutely not cooperate with the far-right AfD, even if it were to become the largest party. In recent state elections in eastern Germany, the AfD emerged as the largest party. Merz assumes that he will become the new chancellor.
But due to the complicated (recently amended) German electoral law, nothing can be said about the composition of the Bundestag after 23 February, and therefore also about a possible government coalition and about possible new German agricultural policy. According to recent opinion polls, CDU/CSU will get about 25-30 percent of the votes, and SPD 15-20 percent, but this varies greatly by state. As a result, a three-party coalition may once again come into view.