SPD and Greens want clarity from CDU on new German coalition

The German caretaker minority government of SPD and Greens will submit proposals to the Bundestag in the next two months to find out whether they are supported by the CDU/CSU opposition. With this, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Ministers Habeck and Özdemir (Greens) want to find out whether a coalition with the CDU is possible after the elections (23 February).

In recent years, the CDU has been fiercely critical of the centre-left 'traffic light coalition'. According to the latest opinion polls, the CDU could soon become the largest party. In that case, a coalition with the SPD would be obvious, but it is uncertain whether this 'grand coalition' will gain a majority. 

That is why the SPD and the Greens want to know where they stand with the CDU. Chancellor Scholz wants to know from CDU leader Merz whether he supports his economic recovery plan for the car industry, as well as the increase in the minimum wage and investments in more new highways and railways. 

Minister of Agriculture Cem Özdemir maintains his proposal to halve the use of chemical agents in agriculture and for contractually binding guarantees for dairy farmers. The proposal to expand the pork label will also be on the negotiating table before the end of February. This label for animal welfare in the German pig industry will then not only apply to meat sales in shops but also in the hospitality industry, restaurants and canteens.

In Germany, preparations for the early federal elections on 23 February are now in full swing under enormous time pressure. The farmers' party Deutsch-Land-Wirtschaft (DLW), founded in May in the state of Brandenburg, has announced that it will not participate in the national elections. In the regional elections in September, the party won barely half a percent of the votes.

Due to the complicated German electoral system, little can be said about a possible new German coalition. Due to the electoral threshold of five percent of the votes, it is uncertain whether the liberal FDP (which is more or less seen as the culprit of the coalition break) will return to the Bundestag.

In addition, it is still unclear whether Die Linke will be able to maintain itself above the electoral threshold, and whether newcomer Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) will be able to register everywhere in time. To do so, hundreds of declarations of support must be collected in each of the almost 300 constituencies.

According to the latest opinion polls, the CDU/CSU could become the largest party with over 30 percent, followed by the SPD with around 15 percent and the Greens with 12 percent. The far-right AfD is also expected to become a very large party, but almost all other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD. In two eastern states, regional governments of the CDU, BSW and AfD have recently been formed, but at the federal level a coalition of the CDU and SPD is much more likely, possibly with a smaller third party.