European JRC scientists who reported to the EU last year about the farm-to-fork strategy have published a new scientific article. In it, they respond to claims and conclusions in other recent studies, including those from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and WUR-Research.
Several authors of the JRC report compare all these studies (Kiel, USDA, JRC, WUR) with each other, including their own. This is a separate article, not a second JRC study commissioned by the EU. However, it is a publication to which partly the same scientists contributed.
In their publication, they comment on the way these earlier studies were presented in the news and argue that the claims regarding negative consequences (for agricultural incomes – ed.) cannot be substantiated.
The models used in all studies have limitations according to the JRC authors. They are unable to assess the full impact of the new environmental and food strategies nor to predict the future.
Regarding their own JRC model, it is said that it only captures changes in three environmental areas for the agricultural sector: greenhouse gases, nitrogen surpluses, and ammonia emissions. However, the benefits of these reductions extend to society as a whole. For example, reduced ammonia emissions also lead to less fine particulate matter in the atmosphere, which in turn translates to fewer premature deaths. This could lead to approximately 16,000 fewer premature deaths.
Researchers at Wageningen University & Research (WUR) recently calculated, commissioned by CropLife Europe and CropLife International, what the consequences could be for crop yields if fewer or no chemical pesticides were allowed to be used.
Incidentally, those studies focus only on production, not on incomes. Therefore, no conclusions about incomes can be drawn, the reporters believe.
WUR researchers acknowledge that the possible benefits in areas such as Climate, Health, and Biodiversity were not included, although the entire F2F strategy is precisely focused on those, as another WUR researcher, Jeroen Candel, pointed out this past weekend. Moreover, according to Candel, food security is not at risk, a point on which he earlier criticized his WUR colleagues.
Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans told the Dutch House of Representatives last year that “the farm-to-fork strategy encompasses the entire food chain. If you only look at a number of production side goals, you inevitably get a distorted picture.”
“So I also hope we can have that discussion more often; that we do not just talk about the costs of the transition but also look at the enormous costs of not transitioning. That we do not keep fooling people that if we do nothing, everything will stay as it is now. That is simply not true.”