Just as it is crucial to reap the rewards in the final year of the term, the European Commission is not only losing one of its star players but is also facing increasing resistance against key Green Deal legacies from Timmermans' portfolio.
Now that it is clear that Timmermans will be the lead candidate for PvdA/GroenLinks, there is already intense speculation in Brussels about who will succeed him. By the way: should he even be replaced just for that one year?
Who will defend the dogma "Thou shalt make sustainable" in the coming year? A temporary replacement who merely minds the store? Who should anchor Timmermans' climate dossiers for the next EU period 2024–2029? According to the rules, the Netherlands should propose a new candidate commissioner. But the Dutch cabinet, after the resignation of VVD Prime Minister Mark Rutte, is currently caretaker, and such appointments are politically extra sensitive.
The Brussels machinery might think Timmermans’ work is more or less done, and that the remainder can be handled by Timmermans’ current assistant, dossier-devourer Diederik Samsom. If necessary, the remainder could be postponed until after the European elections (June 2024), or one of the current commissioners dealing with "Climate" might add an extra year.
Undoubtedly, it will be taken into account that in the coming year and a half, agri-agriculture and the envi-environment will not be the major topics. Perhaps unfortunate for European farmers, but the EU faces a number of other, crucial challenges next year, especially on the geopolitical stage.
Here, trade relations with the United States and China, the consequences of Brexit, and the Russian war in Ukraine are indeed somewhat more important than whether or not to ban glyphosate. Admittedly, the agricultural lobby in Brussels is already hoping that Timmermans’ early departure leads "from postponement to cancellation." Opinions about the remaining Timmermans dossiers are still highly divided.
For instance, the agriculture ministers still have to agree on halving chemical substances in agriculture. Ministers and Parliament still need to agree on a virtually dismantled Nature Restoration Law. A decision on reducing nitrate pollution in groundwater is still pending. There have also been announcements about loosening glyphosate usage and expanding GMO techniques.
In that scenario (= still a lot to be achieved), Commission President Von der Leyen can take the remaining Climate dossier into her own hands and could turn a threatening minus into a plus. Whispers in the Brussels corridors say that Von der Leyen wants to be reappointed after the European elections. Reportedly, especially conservative German Christian Democrats are not so happy about this. They believe Von der Leyen is too Timmermans-friendly, too green.
Several Central European Christian Democratic parties (and EVP party leader Weber!) think the EU should take a more right-leaning course, paying more attention to ‘economy + present’ and less emphasis on ‘Green Deal + the day after tomorrow.’
For Von der Leyen, successfully completing and securing Timmermans’ final steps would not only be a fine diplomatic-administrative result; it could also be a personal campaign strategy.