In that case, the temporary import ban on Ukrainian agricultural products in five EU neighboring countries, which expires in two weeks, would need to be extended until at least the end of this year. Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski supports the request of the five concerned countries (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia), but his fellow EU Commissioners have not yet agreed.
Moreover, a Commission decision is required to provide the necessary 600 million euros for the transport subsidy. The other Commissioners want to replace the current temporary import ban with some form of transit obligation, but without the cooperation of those five countries, they cannot enforce or monitor it.
If the EU no longer protects their local agricultural markets, Poland and Hungary threaten again to block border crossings.
The core of the discussion centers on the impact of surplus Ukrainian grain exports on local markets. According to Wojciechowski, there is little demand for Ukrainian grain in international trade because the additional transport costs (by road to the Baltic ports, or by inland ship over the Danube) make it too expensive. As a result, there is currently even more demand for Russian grain.
The proposed EU subsidy would help facilitate grain export through so-called 'solidarity corridors' via EU neighboring countries to ports on the Baltic Sea, North Sea, and possibly the Croatian Adriatic coast.
Wojciechowski has proposed subsidizing Ukrainian grain exporters to make them competitive again on the world market. However, the proposal has sown division within the European Commission, as some members believe that extending the import ban could undermine Ukraine’s economic position.
Ukraine prefers to transport their grain via the far western shipping route over the Black Sea, through the coastal waters of NATO countries Romania and Bulgaria. However, the threat of Russian military action has made EU countries reluctant to use this route.
The European Commission is expected to announce its final position on this issue soon, just before the current import ban expires on 15 September.