The first half of the year will have to show whether the new CAP will suffer from teething problems and implementation issues. After a few weeks ago – as the last – the Dutch strategic plan was approved by Brussels, this new agricultural policy can now start following years of detailed preparations. It offers more room for national priorities, which will undoubtedly lead to more consultations and discussions.
The Netherlands considers 2023 a transitional year. The European Commission has already indicated that it will not rigidly adhere to rules and procedures, allowing room for practical experience gained. But between theory and practice, many eyebrows will doubtless still be raised…
The consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine will also hit hard next year; not only for farmers and food producers but for all Europeans. The Russian military advance last year led to a new Cold War between Eastern and Western Europe, with all its consequences.
The international sanctions against the Putin regime are forcing EU countries into a geopolitical reorientation, including a new energy policy (read: more expensive gas, fertilizers, trade boycotts, etc). European agriculture will face the question in the coming half year of whether EU import duties should be reintroduced on Ukrainian agricultural exports, or if we should ‘continue helping Ukraine no matter what.’
Additionally, there are at least a dozen dormant files on the European agricultural agendas that will either be neatly resolved, fizzle out, or potentially lead to conflicts.
The Commissioners want to have various plans completed and finalized in time to prevent their proposals from being ‘pushed past the elections.’ From the recently published annual schedule, it is already clear that several initiatives will have to be postponed.
The calendar year 2023 will be a peculiar year for European politics in any case. In the autumn, campaigns will kick off for the spring 2024 elections for a new European Parliament. Campaign time is often a period when politicians sharpen divisions, making compromise more difficult. Therefore, campaign time is not the best period for Commissioners to successfully steer their far-reaching, impactful decisions through the European Parliament.
This could prove problematic for the set of Nature Restoration, Fertilizers, and Crop Protectors proposals from Commissioners Timmermans, Sinkevicius, and Kyriakides. Many EU agriculture ministers want an additional study first (including at least a six-month delay?). Moreover, the Agriculture Committee is hitting the brakes, the Commissioners claim they are willing to compromise, and the Environment Committee wants to complete those nature and crop laws before the election campaign begins.
Their own term of office for the European Commissioners only ends in November 2024. So they still have nearly two years ahead of them, but that includes a Parliament in campaign mode, then a newly incoming Parliament to get accustomed to, and then the uncertainty about which Commissioners ‘may stay’ and whether they keep the same portfolio.
Thus, the current Commission remains in office throughout 2023. For new plans and budgets, they need approval from the sectoral ministerial councils and the European Parliament. This usually happens in trilogues (the so-called trilogues); a time-consuming detailed review of all the points, commas, and cents.
In agriculture, there are many dormant files that still need to be 'closed off' in trilogues. And it is already known for many of these that there are significant disagreements, with a correspondingly increasing chance of delays…