The meeting is also the last Agriculture Council under the leadership of the Belgian EU presidency; from July 1, Hungary, which is less EU-friendly, will hold the EU presidency for six months. Moreover, much EU decision-making will be on hold for the coming half-year, awaiting the appointment of a new European Commission. Behind the scenes, the heads of government are already discussing which commissioners are eligible for reappointment and who are not.
The outgoing current Commission presented last week (entirely as planned) the draft budget for the year 2025. It showed an almost budget-neutral proposal, with only occasional (previously agreed) adjustments.
No increase has been allocated for the Common Agricultural Policy either, despite earlier appeals from Commissioner Wojciechowski. He believes that at least the 'disaster fund' should be increased, and that all budget posts should be adjusted for inflation. The Commission intends to reserve €53.8 billion for the CAP next year, unchanged from the 2024 budget. Wojciechowski, who was responsible for agricultural policy over the past five years, called on European leaders to recognize the importance of the CAP.
The Belgian presidency will invite the Agriculture Council in Luxembourg to draw a series of conclusions about the desired future of agriculture. Those conclusions should respond to the recent farmer protests in many EU countries, and to the challenges the agricultural sector faces in the coming years.
Furthermore, the outcome (?) of the agricultural dialogue initiated by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen must be taken into account in the new agricultural policy. Earlier this year, under pressure from farmer protests, she put the Green Deal measures in agriculture on hold and promised 'to enter into dialogue with the farmers.' Since then, hardly anything has been heard of that dialogue.
The only concrete decision since then by the European Parliament and the EU countries has been not to implement four climate rules established in 2021 in a mandatory fashion, but rather on a voluntary basis. Moreover, those four measures were immediately suspended due to the outbreak of the Russian war against Ukraine. The much-mentioned 'burden relief' is left to the EU countries themselves and mostly concerns the abolishment of administrative obligations; not the removal of subsidies and taxes.
In addition, formal negotiations with Ukraine about accession to the EU officially began last week. The country besieged by Russia wants to shift its geopolitical course towards the EU and seeks integration with Europe. These processes could take years but may also quickly become directional.
If this 'agricultural giant' is admitted to the EU single market, it will almost completely disrupt the current agricultural policy and food production. Therefore, it is already clear that, for the time being, nothing will change in EU agricultural policy, pending a new (slightly more right-wing) European Parliament, a new team of Commissioners (possibly again including von der Leyen?), a new (higher?) CAP budget, and the (fast or slow) accession of Ukraine.