The newly appointed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is traveling to London on Wednesday for her first official meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Undoubtedly, the main topic during their bilateral meeting will be the negotiations on the future European-British trade relationship.
After a resounding election victory in December, the Johnson government is smoothly heading toward a British departure from the European Union on January 31. The British will then leave the EU, with a transition period until the end of this year during which practically nothing changes. In those 11 months, an agreement must be reached about the (future) relationship in areas including trade.
Experts consider it very unlikely that this will succeed. The EU usually takes years to conclude such agreements. In that periodâwhich Johnson does not want to extendâan agreement must be reached on the future (trade) relationship. Von der Leyen already called it "very challenging" in early December to close a deal within that timeframe. If it fails, a chaotic Brexit threatens to occur anyway.
The core of the problem is the required careful negotiation procedure: the EU countries will base their new trade agreement with the British on their current trade agreements. The 27 remaining EU countries do not want to be worse off because of the British departure. The British, however, want to get rid of those current EU agreements, and the more deviations the British seek, the more there is to discuss.
Moreover, the EU (both officials and politicians) has gained considerable experience over recent decades in 'aligning' and 'reconciling' disagreements among EU countries, whereas the current British negotiations are about how much the British will be allowed to deviate in the future.
As it stands now, a new EU-UK fisheries agreement could become a major stumbling block. British fishermen want, at all costs, âthose foreign vessels (=competition) out of their fishing waters,â while Dutch, German, and Danish fishing fleets cannot do without them.
Johnson insists the deal must be concluded before the end of 2020. If that fails, a chaotic Brexit still threatens. The negotiations will not be simple. Several EU government leaders have already drawn a red line. âIf you want access for your goods to our internal market, then you must respect our standards and rules,â stated Christian Democrat Manfred Weber, chairman of the largest group in the European Parliament.