She can count on the support of three pro-European political groups that last month – as in 2019 – secured a majority of the seats: her own center-right European People’s Party (188 seats), the Social Democrats (136), and the liberals from Renew (77).
Due to the recent electoral gains of the far-right Patriotic Alternative, the conservative ECR (78 seats) now forms the fourth largest party, while the liberals and Greens have fallen back to 77 and 53 seats respectively. Several individual members of the current three coalition groups have already stated that they will not support Von der Leyen. These include the French conservative Les Républicains (EPP), German, Irish, and Romanian liberals, as well as French and Italian Social Democrats. The final vote on Thursday afternoon will be secret.
Von der Leyen is uncertain about her chances of re-election and has tried to broaden her majority by reaching out both to the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and to the Greens. However, cooperating too much with the ECR is a risk for her, as she might lose part of the Social Democrats (S&D) and liberals (Renew) who refuse to collaborate with the right wing.
To garner support for her work program, the Commission President last week attended not only the meetings of the three coalition groups EPP, S&D, and Renew, but also the Greens group meeting. As a result, Von der Leyen has promised something to everyone in the past weeks but has satisfied no one completely. This political ambivalence may have jeopardized her re-election.
In any case, it will be exciting, just like five years ago. Over the next five years, there will be 720 MEPs in Strasbourg, so Von der Leyen needs 361 votes. The question is whether among the 401 EU politicians from her current three-party coalition, forty will not support her candidacy. And whether she has managed to convince enough Conservatives and Greens remains to be seen.
Whether the Greens will vote for her reappointment will, according to co-group leader Bas Eickhout, depend on the plans she announced in her speech. They will assess whether 'the Commission will take a tougher stance against countries that undermine the rule of law and European values. That means: no more European money to rule-of-law violators like Orbán's Hungary and the rule of law must never be part of a political trade-off.'
In terms of peace and security, the Greens want the EU to remain fully committed to Ukraine; to proactively pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East conflict; and to step up cooperation in Defense. Furthermore, the Greens want guarantees for upholding the Climate Agreements of the Green Deal, including in European Agriculture.