This scenario is highlighted in the latest Euronews Super Poll by the Euronews Poll Centre, one of the last before the European elections from 6 - 9 June. According to the poll, centre-right and far-right parties will win, while liberal-democrats are expected to lose significantly in all EU countries.
The largest party would once again be the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), followed by the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), closely followed by the right-wing nationalists of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). This group could become the third-largest faction in the European Parliament, at the expense of the Renew liberals.
The far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) will also likely achieve a significant victory thanks to France, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) leads in the polls. The Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV), Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), and Romania’s Right Alternative (AD) are also polling at the top in their countries.
Identity and Democracy will also gain momentum from a strong showing in Germany, where Alternative for Germany (AfD) is set for substantial gains. However, the position of that German party within the European alliance is weak after their candidate Maximilian Krah stated that “you should never say that someone who wore an SS uniform was automatically a criminal,” which led to a suspension but not expulsion.
ID is also causing problems for other European parties. The liberal alliance Renew is about to expel its Dutch member, the VVD, after it agreed to form a coalition government with Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam party PVV. Renew faces a major decrease in the number of seats, as Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party is currently declining in the polls compared to the last elections.
The other major winner in these EU elections will be the conservative group ECR. The group is expected to record strong results in Italy with the ruling Brothers of Italy (FdI), in Poland with Law and Justice (PiS), and in Spain with Vox. Recently, Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen spoke in conciliatory terms about each other during a meeting in Madrid, opening the door for cooperation after the elections. They may even have the opportunity to influence the election of the new European Commission president and other key figures.
However, division remains over future political cooperation in Brussels and Strasbourg. The Christian democratic EPP is predominantly pro-European, and many parties within the EPP will struggle to form an alliance with the ECR and ID, where most parties are eurosceptic and ultranationalist.
Moreover, every European Commission candidate must be approved by the 27 national governments, and since France, Germany, and Spain are governed by liberal or centre-left governments, it is difficult to imagine them approving candidates endorsed by parties on the extreme end of the political spectrum.