Moreover, from an initial preliminary allocation of seats, it can already be established that the power balance within the European Parliament remains virtually unchanged: the three governing political groups (Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, and Liberals) retain their majority.
The EPP Christian Democrats gain seats, partly because the parliament is expanding from 705 to 720 seats. The S&D Social Democrats maintain approximately their current level, but the liberal Renew coalition partner suffers losses. The Greens also suffer significant losses. With the current preliminary result, these three governing groups can continue their coalition, and the reappointment of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remains possible.
In the coming months it will become clear whether the heads of government of the 27 EU countries (in their search for new EU commissioners) will reflect this election result, or will stick to 'the center'. The group leaders in the European Parliament must also make these decisions: will it remain a three-party coalition or will they seek political support to their right or left?
The only really uncertain factor is how the conservative, right-wing, far-right, and nationalist groups will align themselves. Together they have gained several dozen seats. But so far they sit divided in three groups: the ECR conservatives, the ID far-right extremists, and the NI nationalists. However, among them are some 'big players' such as the German AfD, the French RN, and the Spanish VOX.
Five years ago there was talk of these parties forming one influential group together in a single group, but this has (so far) been prevented by the egos and national strategies of political leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, France’s Marine Le Pen, Dutch PVV member Geert Wilders, and the controversial but large German AfD leaders.
Also, it is still unknown to which groups the several dozen 'individual' unassigned seats will attach. These mostly involve single-person groups of small national parties. Some of them may still end up with the Liberals or The Greens.