Future of new EU Commission: first clear away old blockades

In the initial approving reactions to the broad endorsement of Ursula Von der Leyen's new European Commission, there is still little attention to the many dark clouds on the European horizon. That threat consists not only of unresolved old dossiers from the now outgoing Juncker Commission, but also of new problems that the VDL policy and the 27 EU commissioners bring upon themselves.

As newcomer Von der Leyen wants to forge new paths with her three experienced super commissioners Timmermans, Vestager, and Dombrovskis, they will first have to break down stubborn EU blockades in many EU capitals. One such problem will arise as early as next week when an agreement must be reached on the multiannual budget.

Both in her official speech and at a press conference afterwards in Strasbourg, Von der Leyen acknowledged that she could not yet be very concrete on many policy fields (because the EU commissioners, the ministers, and EP committees still have to establish new binding policies), but she made clear that the multiannual budget must contain more money regardless.

With her call for more money, Von der Leyen directly opposes wealthy but also frugal countries (such as the Netherlands and Denmark). Those countries believe that new European policies should not be financed by increasing spending but only by abolishing other EU policies.

European politicians from agricultural Eastern European countries are already issuing warnings that they will not agree early next year to drastic revisions or cuts in the Common Agricultural Policy. More specifically: the reduction of agricultural subsidies. These subsidies form an important part of many farmers’ incomes, but they also make up one-third of all EU expenditures.

Moreover, agricultural spending must also fit within the (new, not yet formulated) European climate and environmental policies. So many farmers already see trouble ahead. This means that the first vice-president of the VDL Commission, Dutchman Frans Timmermans, will gain control over many financial flows within the plans of many of his colleagues, including those related to agriculture. And in those countries, Timmermans is not the most popular EU politician. He may have to enlist Von der Leyen’s support when presenting his plans in Budapest or Warsaw…

The Dutch PvdA Members of the European Parliament in Strasbourg said today that they had voted in full conviction for the new Commission. The Dutch social democrats said they were proud of social plans such as a minimum wage for a decent living and proud of the green plans like those for the Sustainable Development Goals.

In the first hundred days of this Commission, Timmermans is already providing a climate legislative proposal with his Green Deal. Agnes Jongerius said about this: ‘The overall picture looks good now. We have allocated our commissioners to heavy portfolios. The programme has never been so progressive. We will work together for a better future for the people of Europe.’

Bas Eickhout (GreenLeft) is also pleased with this EU Commission’s Green Deal but foresees problems in implementation. “The difficulty lies in the implementation of the policy. Compromises will have to be made, and there will be fights over every topic, whether it is biodiversity, agriculture, or the circular economy. And Commissioner Timmermans will need the support of the Greens in those cases.”

MEP Peter van Dalen (ChristianUnion) voted for Ursula von der Leyen’s new European Commission: “I think it is high time that the new Commission gets to work, especially on the Green Deal. It is urgent that the European Union, with all of us and all sectors, acts now for a better climate.”

Additionally, Von der Leyen will have to work over the coming years on a ‘modernization’ of EU procedures and rules, which many already fear will be ‘one big mess.’ For example, the EU upholds the unanimity principle in several key areas. This means that a new law can only pass if everyone agrees. Currently, this allows (relatively) small EU countries to block (relatively) large EU decisions over (relatively) small objections, sometimes for years.

“I’m holding my breath,” says Sophie in ’t Veld (D66) in a first reaction. “This is clearly the commission of the governments of the EU countries. The European governments have divided the posts among themselves, so I am very afraid that Von der Leyen will lend an ear to the premiers and ministers. While she should be independent.” On the other hand, In ’t Veld admits that she is pleasantly surprised by the quality of the Commission: “There are very capable people. So I am withholding my judgment for now.”