Earlier, Dutch MEP Jan Huitema (VVD) also pointed to a possible last-minute solution.
In the full European Parliament, the vote on Wednesday could again come down to a single vote. There, EPP group leader Manfred Weber cannot (as he did in June in the environment committee) replace hesitant group members with pro-voting (mostly German) Christian Democrats.
Only if the entire EPP group remains unanimous (187), and all votes from conservatives (61), extremists and nationalists (76), and independents (29) are secured, do the Christian Democrats have one vote left. The center-left coalition of S&D/PvdA (148), liberal VVD/D66 (97), Greens (68), and United Left (39) would then fall one vote short out of the 705.
According to group leader Canfin, it is clear that by submitting their own amendment, the Renew liberals will no longer (as in the committees) vote divided, and that several EPP/CDA members agree with the earlier approach of the environment ministers. Several ministers of Christian Democratic background from various EU countries had already voted in favor then.
The chance that the EPP will vote divided rather than unanimously next week has also increased because last week the European Commission presented two new agriculture-friendly proposals: future approval of gene techniques (crispr-cas) and a soil protection directive (for now) without obligations. These two elements of the EU climate policy were already announced in the Green Deal.
The ministers' compromise submitted by the Swedish presidency is a substantial weakening of the nature restoration proposal submitted last May by EU Commissioners Frans Timmermans (Climate), Virginijus Sinkevičius (Environment), and Stella Kyriakides (Food Safety).
For example, the binding 'result obligation' has been relaxed to an 'effort obligation', and in densely populated and built-up areas, the prohibition on deterioration for building permits 'of general interest' can be lifted. Brussels must also allocate more funds for damage compensation.
The European Parliament will debate Tuesday morning the final report by Spanish MEP Cesar Luena, on which votes in the environment committee last month ended in a tie twice: 44-44. In the past week, negotiators from the EP groups have tried to agree on a proposal that could also win support from the EPP/CDA.
If on Wednesday morning the vote shows that the European Parliament has taken a majority position, the tripartite talks with the European Commission and the 27 Environment Ministers (the trilogue) can start later this year. If the European Parliament rejects the Luena report or votes end in a tie, the nature restoration law will be definitively off the table.