Major questions at the moment are: will we stick to the Green Deal, including adjustments in agriculture, how to deal with obstructive Poland and a solo Polish agricultural commissioner, and what to do with the ten hopeful EU candidate countries?
There is currently a lot of speculation, barely nine months before the European elections and about a year and a half before a new team of Commissioners is formed. Von der Leyen would like to be reappointed, but she will then have to emerge unscathed from the struggle over the next year and a half.
Opinions vary, but almost everyone agrees that her speech will close the cycle she started upon her appointment in December 2019 with the unfolding of the Green Deal philosophy.
Although that mission has been theoretically and legally almost completed by her then right-hand and first Vice-President Frans Timmermans, many issues relating to agriculture and biodiversity are still far from resolved. Moreover, it has also become political dynamite.
Ursula von der Leyen faces the choice: to hold on to the ambitious Green Deal objectives or to calculate compromises. Several interest groups have already urged to maintain the ban on the use of glyphosate. They also call not to postpone the planned modernization of EU rules on animal welfare.
On the other hand, the influential European agricultural umbrella organization Copa-Cogeca has already called for adjustments. “We need a European Union that distances itself from dogmatism and starts talking again with rural communities.
Crucial issues are still on the table, whether it concerns crop protection, new genomic techniques, animal welfare, sustainable food systems, or the conclusion of negotiations on nature restoration or industrial emissions. For these reasons, European agriculture and forestry cannot be left out of the State of the Union speech!” said Copa-Cogeca.
Furthermore, the current Commission will in any case have to say something about the much-needed (already promised!) reforms of EU procedures, powers, and portfolios. This is urgently needed with the current 27 member states; let alone if five or ten newcomers are admitted.
A recent remark by EU Chair Charles Michel suggests that some heads of state and government believe the EU must be ready for this by 2030. That means the new Commission (2024-2029) only has to prepare it, and the very last decision can be taken only in the period thereafter.