WUR researcher Roel Jongeneel told the European Parliament that the findings of his study on the impacts of the Green Deal and the Farm to Fork food strategy are primarily indicative.
In a joint hearing of the AGRI Agriculture Committee and the ENVI Environment Committee, Jongeneel emphasized that his study mainly looks at effects on the production side. Regarding incomes, his WUR study is only indicative.
Yesterday, in the hearing, Jongeneel provided clarification on two WUR studies about potential impacts of the Farm to Fork strategy on arable farming and animal husbandry. Using slides, he made clear that the Green Deal and F2F are expected to have a negative impact of 10 to 15 percent on both animal and plant production in the EU. The effects will vary by crop, by farm system, and especially by region.
On Tuesday afternoon, Jongeneel stressed that large differences may occur per country, depending on how EU policy will be implemented per country through the national strategic plans (NSPs). 'We have only done some case studies; a lot will depend on exactly which policies are implemented and also how things are approached locally. Very little is known about that yet.'
The WUR studies were conducted on behalf of CropLife Europe and Copa-Cogeca, focusing mainly on the impacts on agriculture. One of these studies shows that income effects can be both strongly positive and negative. A positive factor is the expected price increases resulting from the Green Deal.
A negative factor is the additional environmental requirements which lead to extra restrictions and higher costs. 'I keep emphasizing that there are large regional differences. Production shifts could occur within the EU. Some countries might gain (e.g., in Eastern Europe) while others could lose (countries with environmental hotspots). Jongeneel called this ‘a complex story.’
Moreover, it is still unclear to what extent governments will support farmers with targeted payments. “Our cautious conclusions also relate to this: a lot simply isn’t known yet, so how can you estimate the impact? What is being done now is primarily indicative,” Jongeneel said when asked for further explanation.