With barely ten days to go, tension in the British election campaign seems to be slowly returning. Until recently, the Conservatives had a wide lead over Labour, but that lead is shrinking. Moreover, the polls have yet to factor in voters’ reactions to the terrorist attack on London Bridge.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is now advocating that terror suspects should no longer be released early for good behavior, as was the case with the perpetrator of the bridge attack. Critics, on the other hand, accuse Johnson and the Conservatives of having done nothing about it in recent years.
According to one poll, Johnson is heading for a large majority in the House of Commons in the December 12 election. This emerges from a prominent poll and forecast by Times/YouGov. At the same time, the average of all polls over the past days shows that the gap between Johnson and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is getting smaller. In many polls, the gap has already shrunk to seven percentage points.
Johnson wants to get his Brexit deal through Parliament before Christmas if he wins the election. This is stated in the Conservative Party’s manifesto published last week. The current prime minister wants the United Kingdom to leave the European Union by the end of January.
Commentators point out that this is a highly misleading representation of the situation. If Johnson can push his agreement with the EU through Parliament following an election victory, only the manner in which Britain leaves the EU is established. What follows is an equally challenging chapter: what will be the new trade relationship between the UK and the European Union?
If he does not achieve that majority, a highly complicated situation will arise. Either Labour manages to form a majority with the support of other opposition parties. In that case, a new referendum on Brexit will take place in the middle of next year.
Currency analysts at ABN Amro see the exchange rate of the British pound gaining slightly as the latest opinion polls point to a majority for the Conservatives. Investors like clarity; a strong government can take steps to manage Brexit’s conclusion. The British pound has shown a positive trend in recent days. The pound rose relative to both the US dollar and the euro. ABN Amro also views such an outcome as positive for the pound.