The most recent EU short-term outlook for the coming months predicts that pork production in the EU countries will remain relatively stable, with a downward adjustment of half a percent.
Looking further ahead to 2021, the European Commission believes that exports could fall by 10% due to the situation in Germany, but also because of the expectation that China may be able to increase its own pork production again.
Pork production in the 27 EU countries amounted to 13.2 million tons in the first half of the year, only 38,500 tons (0.3%) lower than at the same point last year. 140 million pigs were slaughtered, 1.7 million (1.2%) more than last year, with heavier carcass weights making the difference.
AHDB analyst Hannah Clarke explained on PigWorld, the site of the British pig industry, that pork production was limited by lower slaughtering in the main producing countries, because coronavirus disrupted both processing and demand.
Moreover, the recent discovery of African Swine Fever among German wild boars and the subsequent trade restrictions have caused greater price pressure, according to Clarke.
The recent trade restrictions on German pork by major Asian markets have also led the European Commission to revise its export forecasts downward to an annual growth of +2%. Previously, a larger growth was expected.
Clarke added that the development of EU exports will mainly be influenced by how ASF cases are handled and whether major trading partners will allow trade with ASF-free regions.
Currently, Germany is trying to get China to allow imports again of meat from German federal states without ASF. So far, China has treated all permits on a national scale. Other EU exporters can fill some gaps in the German supply, although it is uncertain whether they can fully compensate for the volumes.