The European Union expects corn imports to decrease next season and grain exports to increase, as a result of the Russian war against Ukraine.
The European Commission stated this in its first quarterly report since the outbreak of the war between two of the world's largest grain exporters.
The Commission predicts that EU exports of soft wheat next season, which begins in July, will amount to 40 million tons, compared to the 33 million tons previously estimated.
The Commission describes this as a reflection of "global demand due to a lower supply from Ukraine." The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February halted the massive export of Ukrainian crops, leading to record prices for wheat and oilseeds in Europe.
Assuming normal weather developments in spring and summer, total grain production in 2022/23 could reach 297.7 million tons (+1.5% year-on-year), with an expected soft wheat production of 131.3 million tons. The net export of EU grains will increase by 11.5 million tons to 41.4 million tons, nearly 40% more.
The Commission also forecasts a sharp decline in corn imports into the EU next season to 9 million tons, from the 14 million tons currently expected. The EU is a net importer of corn for animal feed, and Ukraine is usually one of the largest suppliers.
The Commission also predicted a greater grain production within the EU, stating that a decision to allow farmers to use fallow land for crops would increase supply.