Estimates for soft wheat production have dropped to 116.5 million tons, a substantial decrease compared to earlier projections.
The lower yields are attributed to a combination of adverse weather conditions, such as persistent rainfall, drought, and heatwaves, as well as the impact of the Russian war in Ukraine. All of this not only leads to lower production but also raises concerns about the quality of the harvests. This will likely result in higher grain prices in the near future.
In Germany, particularly in the states of Baden and Lower Saxony, lower harvests are reported due to ongoing rain and poor weather conditions, with reduced crop quality.
Poland expects a significant drop in grain production, especially compared to the previous year. The total grain yield in Poland is expected to be lower than in 2023, despite more land being sown.
Austria also reports lower harvests, with total production falling short of expectations. The forecasts for the wheat harvest have been revised downward, and the final yield will likely be lower than initially predicted.
The situation in Ukraine is more complex. Although the country has managed to increase its grain exports despite intensified Russian attacks, harvest forecasts remain volatile. The Ukrainian National Bank has slightly raised the harvest forecasts, but it remains uncertain how the war and weather conditions will affect the final production.
France, the largest wheat producer in the EU, reports a 25% decrease compared to last year, resulting in the smallest harvest since 1987.
Overall, the grain market situation is characterized by uncertainty and concerns about the sustainability of the harvests under current conditions. The coming weeks will be crucial for the final yields and the subsequent impact on European food prices.