British Prime Minister Boris Johnson returns from the EU summit in Brussels to London with a withdrawal agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union in hand. He will now have to convince the House of Commons to accept the deal. If successful, the European Parliament will also have to give its approval.
According to Brexit coordinator and MEP Guy Verhofstadt, what has now been agreed upon is more or less the first proposal that the EU presented to the British three years ago.
Verhofstadt told VRT that there is a major difference from the previous deal that Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May ultimately negotiated but did not get through the British parliament: the time pressure. According to Verhofstadt, due to this time pressure, several red lines for Europe were not crossed: the soft border with Northern Ireland and the preservation of the European single market.
Only once the deal has been ratified by the British parliament will the European Parliament discuss it. According to him, Europe will not take any risks by starting a procedure now and then being confronted with a British parliament that does not approve it.
Boris Johnson is far from certain of a parliamentary majority. His coalition partner, the Northern Irish DUP, does not support the deal, nor do the liberal LibDem opposition and the anti-European Brexit party. Johnson can only find a majority if 21 Conservative party colleagues (whom he expelled from the party last month) support his proposal, as well as about fifteen Labour opposition members.
Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn has already spoken out against the deal, but there are also parliamentarians in his party who want to leave the EU regardless. These Labour dissidents may possibly help Boris Johnson secure his much-needed majority.
Verhofstadt still considers it possible that the British will leave the European Union on October 31, but that requires approval on Saturday. He does not rule out that even in that case, an additional session of the European Parliament will be held, “because the details regarding the status of European citizens still need to be thoroughly examined.”
If it does not succeed in London on Saturday, several scenarios remain open. European Commission President Juncker is not eager for a new extension, but European Council President Donald Tusk would still like to keep that option open.