But not only with the Green Deal, Environment and Climate are the contours of a different European agricultural policy being defined. At the start of the European election campaign, there are already at least about eight issues that could guide future EU agriculture.
First of all, the appointment of Dutch Minister Wopke Hoekstra as the new Climate Commissioner is an option. He still faces a 'heavy' job interview in Strasbourg, presumably in October, likely with the ENVI (Environment) committee of the European Parliament.
If he is found to be too inexperienced, that could be interpreted as a signal that the European Parliament wants to stick to the âgreenâ Climate course of Frans Timmermans. If European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agrees with this as well, she could make that known already next Wednesday in her annual 'State of the Union' speech.
Von der Leyen is under pressure from her own Christian Democrats who want less Green Deal and Environment and more Agriculture and Rural areas. Most likely, Von der Leyen will not want to get involved or she could opt for a âflight forwardâ.
Aside from that, it remains to be seen whether Brussels politics can manage to settle the conflict between (the Polish) Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski and the other 26 commissioners. He pursues a totally independent strategy when it comes to the export of Ukrainian grain to EU ports. This dispute within Von der Leyenâs team of commissioners could well become a matter of bend or break.
Moreover, Von der Leyen has to give a speech a week later (19 September) at a EPP congress in her 'own' German federal state of Bavaria âabout the future of agriculture.â Regional elections will be held in the generally conservative southern German state on 8 October.
The outcome could signal to what extent a more right-wing, agrarian course leads to the return of former CDU/CSU voters who had left. According to opinion polls, there is rightward movement in EU countries, but this recently proved not to be the case in Spain.
A week later (15 October), parliamentary elections will be held in Poland, also largely centered on rural areas and agriculture. There too, the question is whether disappointed rural residents and farmers will 'return' to the conservative-nationalist PiS coalition. The Ukrainian grain issue, a looming border blockade, and the rebellious EU Commissioner Wojciechowski are sparks in the powder keg.
And a few weeks later again (22 November), parliamentary elections will be held in the Netherlands. There too, partly the question is whether former CDA voters will return or if former voters will seek new parties and new politicians. Of course, the election results in Bavaria, Poland, or the Netherlands will not be decisive for EU policy, but they could be an indicator.
Much more decisive is whether agricultural powerhouse Ukraine will be admitted to the European Union. Negotiations on this begin on 16 December. Ten countries are nominated for EU membership; some have been kept waiting for years.
Shortly, the EU countries must make a decision on whether the EU should first put its own house in order. This was more or less agreed after the 'departure' of the British. If the EU accelerates Ukraine's membership with priority, this will undoubtedly have consequences for the common agricultural policy, whatever the case may beâŠâŠ