The liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, is currently leading in the opinion polls. He is a candidate from the Civic Coalition (KO), supported by the liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Trzaskowski focuses on European integration, abortion rights, and judicial reform. According to the latest polls, he can count on 32 to 38 percent of the votes.
His main challenger is Karol Nawrocki, a historian and head of the Institute of National Remembrance, supported by the conservative opposition party Law and Justice (PiS). Nawrocki positions himself as a defender of traditional values and national identity, with a strong emphasis on security and military readiness. However, his candidacy suffered a setback due to controversy around a real estate transaction, causing his support to drop to 22 percent.
Sławomir Mentzen, leader of the far-right Confederation, ranks third in the polls with about 15 percent. He mainly targets young voters with a nationalist and eurosceptic message.
National security is a central theme in the campaign. Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki present themselves as strong leaders amid geopolitical tensions. They both publicly train for scenarios of military threat, partly due to concerns about Russian interference. Polish authorities warn of unprecedented attempts by Russia to influence the election outcome through disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks.
Foreign policy also divides the candidates. Trzaskowski advocates a course that brings Poland closer to the EU and NATO, while Nawrocki focuses on closer cooperation with the United States.
The economic situation also plays a role. Shortly before the election, the National Bank of Poland, under pressure from Prime Minister Tusk, lowered the interest rate by half a percentage point to 5.25 percent in an attempt to stimulate the economy.
If no candidate obtains an absolute majority, a decisive second round will be held on June 1. The new president will be sworn in on August 6. The election outcome will not only determine Poland's domestic course but will also redefine the country's position within Europe.