Radosław Sikorsky, the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, recently said that Ukraine could join the EU by the end of this decade (2029-2030) or shortly thereafter, provided the country implements significant reforms and adopts European legislation. The EU and Kyiv have recently begun negotiations on this matter, with several options potentially on the table.
The EU is also starting to prepare for changes in trade and agricultural policies in light of Ukraine’s possible accession. The country will not only need to comply with European standards but will also have to further strengthen its domestic agricultural production and exports to become an important player within the EU.
Sikorsky emphasizes that Ukraine will play a significant role in the EU economy and will influence European institutions regardless. However, the path to accession is complex and includes negotiations on agriculture and transport, among other areas.
From the Ukrainian side, there has already been some indication of the possibility of rapid formal accession, with delayed or phased admission related to the export of agricultural and food products. Such a step-by-step admission process was also used twenty years ago when ten former Eastern bloc countries joined the EU.
Some agriculturally oriented EU countries such as Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic believe that all details and specifics must first be fully negotiated and want to link accession to that process. Other agricultural countries such as Denmark, France, and the Netherlands have not yet communicated a concrete stance on this matter.
Besides the political outlook, Ukraine’s agricultural sector is crucial both for the country itself and for the entire EU. The agricultural sector accounts for 17% of Ukraine’s GDP, and 70% of agricultural production is exported. Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine manages to maintain and even expand its agricultural production and exports.