Due to the third consecutive year, crop losses in Poland from the persistent drought could be greater than a year ago. The dry fields in Poland are comparable to the situation in Ukraine and Romania, but are in worse condition than in Austria and Switzerland.
Many Polish farms could therefore find themselves in a difficult situation, said agricultural analyst Mariusz Dziwulski in an interview with the Polish news agency PAP. The PKO analyst said this is now the third consecutive year of drought, so if nothing changes, losses could be greater than a year ago.
He noted that according to drought monitoring by the European Commission, soil moisture in Poland is lower than in 2019. He pointed out that this is an extremely unfavorable situation for Polish farmers, as it could mean that many farms will find themselves in a very difficult position.
“The continuity of some farms, especially in Western Poland, is threatened because the drought was worst there last year. We are mainly talking about those crops where there are fewer irrigation systems, for example grains or vegetables, whereas relatively more Polish fruit producers have invested in installing irrigation systems. In 2018 we also had drought in Poland, while the fruit harvest was very high, and in the case of apples—even record-breaking,” he noted.
“What happens on the domestic market has a relatively small impact on the price level for some products. If the world harvest, for example in grains, is high, Polish farmers lose twice—due to lower yields and lower prices. The prices fall and the harvest yields are comparable.
“This could lead to the wheat harvest being smaller than last year. This situation is worsening, because if we look at the drought maps, Western Europe is also currently struggling with a lack of rain. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture wants to limit maize exports to a maximum of 29.3 million tons this year as a precaution, but according to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), this is unnecessary. According to the grain producers, despite the drought and the corona crisis, there is no need to fear domestic shortages, the Ukrainian news agency Interfax reports. Earlier, Ukraine had already set a maximum on wheat exports.
Moreover, the market situation is such that the price of Ukrainian maize is almost 25-30 dollars higher than the price of its competitors from Argentina and the United States. Therefore, the UGA expects a further decline in maize exports in the near future. Hence, the UGA does not see a shortage of maize on the domestic market,” according to the UGA.
Meteorologists and other experts say that the drought is a consequence of global warming, as also stated by Belgian hydrologist Patrick Willems, hydrologist at KU Leuven. “The atmosphere is warming. A warmer atmosphere can absorb more water vapor. It therefore takes longer for it to become saturated. The result is that drought periods last longer, but the rain afterwards is heavier and more intense. Winters will also probably become wetter.”
On an annual basis, the amount of precipitation does not necessarily have to decrease. The problem is that water during those peak moments is quickly drained, especially in densely populated industrialized countries with a lot of buildings, road surfaces, and paving.