The World Food Organization FAO states that due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, grain prices could rise by another 20%, and fertilizer by 13%. The war could also worsen hunger.
A new FAO report estimates that the number of undernourished people worldwide could nearly double by 7.6 million people to 13.1 million people.
The FAO estimates that 20% to 30% of the winter wheat, corn, and sunflower crops in Ukraine may not be planted or harvested this year, and the yields of the remaining crops may be reduced.
Although the intensity and duration of the war are uncertain, the disruption of agricultural activities in Russia and Ukraine could severely increase food insecurity worldwide, said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu in a statement upon the report's release.
FAO economists evaluated the looming impacts of the war on global food security based on "moderate" and "severe" scenarios, depending on how much export from Ukraine and Russia is reduced. Wheat prices would rise by 8.7% in the moderate scenario and by 21.5% in the severe scenario. Corn prices would increase by 8.2% to 19.5%.
Ukraine is also a major producer of sunflowers, and a reduction in sunflower oil supply would have a ripple effect on the prices of other vegetable oils, the report stated.
Price increases could also affect livestock and poultry. “A reduction in the availability of feed wheat and corn would similarly raise the prices of feed products. In this regard, the feed-intensive poultry and pork sectors would be most directly affected,” the researchers said.
The report warned governments against imposing measures to protect their own food supplies, such as restricting grain exports. Hungary and Bulgaria already took such measures last week.
“Before taking steps to secure their own food supply, governments must consider the possible effects on international markets. Export restrictions could drive up prices on global markets,” according to the FAO report.