Kretschmann has led a coalition of the Greens and the CDU in Baden-Württemberg since 2011, making the Greens one of the largest regional parties. According to recent opinion polls, the Christian Democrats currently hold a slight lead over the Greens there. On a national scale as well, the Christian Democrats have overtaken the Greens.
Özdemir’s candidacy not only serves as a test for the Greens at the regional level but also impacts the nationwide political campaign for the Bundestag elections in autumn 2025. German media strategically views Özdemir’s campaign as the kickoff for the national elections.
Özdemir’s candidacy in Baden-Württemberg thus marks a crucial phase both for his own party and for German politics. His candidacy is intended to help the Greens remain in power in an important state but also symbolizes their broader commitment to the 2025 Bundestag elections. By running, Özdemir can prepare significant groundwork for the Greens’ nationwide campaign.
Speculation about Özdemir’s candidacy for premiership in his state has been open for some time. It should be noted that Özdemir (alongside ministers Habeck and Bärbock) is among the top most prominent Green politicians. Normally, after the 2025 Bundestag elections, he could be considered for another federal ministerial post.
However, recent weeks in Berlin have seen increasing speculation about a (future?) change in government or a (premature?) coalition break, partly influenced by shocking election results in three East German states. The right-wing extremist AfD secured a quarter of the votes, and newcomer Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) emerged as the second strongest party.
Within the SPD, the significant right-wing election gains have already led to the replacement of the party executive’s secretary general, and among the Greens to the replacement of the two co-chairs. Additionally, CDU opposition leader Merz has publicly hinted at an early coalition collapse and states that CDU/CSU wants to be the largest party after the elections and that he himself aspires to become chancellor.
The CDU has already announced that it will claim the key agriculture ministry in that scenario. This claim adds a national dimension to Özdemir’s campaign towards 2026 in Baden-Württemberg. While Özdemir is the scapegoat among German farmers similar to the FDF and BBB, others praise him for standing firm during the budget cuts under FDP Minister Lindner and for not retreating during the large farmers’ protests last autumn.
While the CDU strengthens its support among the center-right middle class, Özdemir’s move charts an important course for the future position of the Greens both in Baden-Württemberg and in the Bundestag.