Last week, the CDU/CSU opposition stated that they are willing to talk with the SPD about reforming the so-called debt brake. Such an anti-inflation rule was the major stumbling block that led to the dismissal of FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner. CDU opposition leader Merz made clear that he would not allow a minority coalition of SPD and the Greens to continue governing.
However, the cautious initial rapprochement between SPD and CDU/CSU explicitly does not apply to the handling of agricultural laws under BMEL Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens). This includes, among others, the manure law which has been in preparation for four years, the expansion of animal welfare regulations, and a possible federal subsidy for modernizing livestock barns. The revision of milk price contracts is also being postponed.
For a few important economic and social laws, Merz has said he wants to reach an agreement with the SPD before the elections. These concern the continuation of the “Deutschlandticket” (a nationwide bus and train subscription costing a few tens of euros per month), an increase of social benefits, and an expansion of military aid to Ukraine.
CDU/CSU also appears not to block the economic stimulus Scholz is preparing together with several top industrial figures. Additionally, Minister of Economic Affairs Robert Habeck (proposed Green Party lead candidate) recently presented his own economic recovery plan.
Opposition leader Merz clearly stated last week that CDU/CSU will absolutely not cooperate with the far-right AfD, even if it were to become the largest party. In recent state elections in eastern Germany, the AfD emerged as the largest party. Merz assumes he will become the new federal chancellor.
However, due to the complicated (recently amended) German electoral law, nothing can be said about the composition of the Bundestag after February 23, and thus also not about a possible governing coalition or any new German agricultural policy. According to recent polls, CDU/CSU receives about 25-30 percent of the vote, and SPD 15-20 percent, but this varies significantly by state. This could again lead to a three-party coalition coming into view.