Among German farmers, the Christian Democratic CDU/CSU is no longer the most popular party, according to a new opinion poll. For the first time in decades, the liberal FDP is now the preferred party among German farmers, with about 24 percent. CDU/CSU scores no higher than 18 percent if elections were held now.
The new survey was conducted in February, shortly after the German coalition government approved a stricter animal welfare law. Two earlier regional elections had already shown that German farmers were becoming less loyal to CDU. In February, there were also many agricultural protests in German cities.
Notably, almost four out of ten (37%) farmer voters have no preference yet and remain undecided. Given the stricter animal welfare law, the announced restrictions on manure spreading, and forthcoming agricultural changes, it is unlikely that hesitant German farmers will return to CDU/CSU.
Moreover, the party leadership decided last week to maintain the candidacy of party chairman Armin Laschet for chancellorship, as successor to the outgoing Angela Merkel. Outside his own state (North Rhine-Westphalia), Laschet is hardly known. Many German commentators do not consider him a vote-winner.
The far-right AfD ranks third with 14%. The center-left SPD remains far out of sight among German farmers, as does the left-radical Die Linke, both with less than 5%.
On a national level, the Greens have 6% of the votes among farmers, but in some states they are the second party with about 20 percent. Additionally, with their female chancellorship candidate, Annalena Baerbock, they present an attractive alternative to the two old, grey gentlemen of the two ‘out-of-government’ parties.
The federal elections on September 26 thus become increasingly important in the agricultural sector. Due to poor opinion polls for both CDU/CSU and SPD, it is very unlikely that the current GroKo (‘grand coalition’) can continue governing. In that case, Germany will see a three-party coalition.
There are already good experiences with this in several states. The big question, however, is which three parties: the current two supplemented by one (Liberals or Greens), or one of the current supplemented by two newcomers (Liberals and Greens). In that scenario, CDU/CSU could even end up in opposition. Additionally, a left-wing majority of SPD, Greens, and Die Linke remains possible.