The immediate cause is the 'economic recovery plan' presented last week by the liberal FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner. This FDP report is widely seen as 'completely at odds with' the ‘Deutschlandfonds’ of Economy Minister Habeck (Greens). This stimulus fund is intended to give the struggling German economy a new boost.
The FDP plan also appeared less than a week after Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) held a summit with the leaders of large German employers' and trade unions. No details were released afterwards, but it is assumed that Scholz prepared the German social partners for ‘even more bad news’. Last week, car manufacturer Volkswagen announced that cuts and reorganization are necessary, possibly involving the closure of three large factories.
Although there are many reasons to adjust the economic course of the three-year-old German coalition, the recent shocking election results in three East German states are far more decisive. In those states, the far-right AfD party (with a quarter of the votes) emerged as a clear winner, followed by the newly formed party around Sahra Wagenknecht. This result shocked politicians in Berlin like a bomb.
In opinion polls, the CDU/CSU opposition has been leading for months with about 30 percent support, while the SPD, Greens, and FDP have been losing ground for several months. Coalition talks are ongoing in those three eastern states, and it seems regional governments will be formed by the CDU, AfD, and BSW. Perhaps the SPD will still be involved in one state.
The regular elections are scheduled only for September next year. According to recent opinion polls, one in two German citizens wants early elections: a slim majority believes the traffic light coalition has come to an end. In the ARD Deutschlandtrend, 54 percent expressed support for new elections.
Only 41 percent support the traffic light government continuing until the regular election date on 28 September 2025. Supporters of the SPD (77 percent) and the Greens (76 percent), however, still consider that continuing joint government work is worthwhile.
In the poll, the CDU-CSU union stands at 34 percent, three percent higher than a month ago; the SPD remains unchanged at 16 percent; and the AfD at 17 percent. The Greens lost two percentage points, now at 11 percent. The BSW lost two percentage points and currently stands at 6 percent nationwide.
It is a document with which Lindner challenges the SPD and Greens and could plunge their coalition deeper into crisis. The FDP leader calls for an immediate and radical change of course, but he does not mean reforming the (financial) debt brake or establishing new special funds.
With this, Lindner directly interferes with Habeck’s industrial policy: Habeck’s approach "traditionally focuses on larger companies, usually also with the strongest interest groups (such as Intel or Thyssen-Krupp), but neglects small and medium-sized enterprises, crafts, and especially new and young companies," Lindner writes. Also, in the field of ‘green’ climate policy, he calls for an end to the "German special path."