Global agriculture and the food industry face fundamental challenges over the next ten years to sustainably feed an ever-growing population. This is stated by the OECD and the FAO in their annual joint food outlook.
The two organizations especially point to the climate crisis and the economic consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) provide a short-term assessment of the war's effects on global agricultural markets and food security.
Wheat prices could be 19% above pre-conflict levels if Ukraine completely loses its export capabilities and 34% higher if Russian exports drop by half.
That bleak scenario also suggests a further increase in the number of chronically undernourished people worldwide. "Without peace in Ukraine, the challenges to food security will continue to rise, especially for the poorest in the world," said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. "Rising prices of food, fertilizers, feed, and fuel are causing human suffering across the globe," also said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu.
In the coming year, 19 million more people may face chronic undernourishment. According to the outlook, global food consumption is expected to grow by 1.4% annually over the next ten years, primarily driven by population growth. Most of the additional food demand will come from low- and middle-income countries.
In the next ten years, global agricultural production is expected to increase by 1.1% annually, mainly in middle- and low-income countries. However, a sustained rise in energy prices and agricultural inputs — such as fertilizers — will increase production costs and may limit productivity in the coming years.
The Outlook also highlights the significant contribution of agriculture to climate change. Direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are expected to increase by about 6%, with the livestock sector responsible for 90% of this additional pollution. Greater efforts will be needed from the agricultural sector to meet the Paris Climate Agreement, the report states.