Economists from the OECD and the FAO expect food production to grow by one and a half percent annually over the next ten years. This growth will primarily occur in emerging economies and poor countries, with little increase in industrialized nations. As a result, global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are predicted to rise by another 4%.
The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and the FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization) state in their Agriculture Outlook 2021-2030 that progress in agriculture will largely be based on improved access to financing and investments in technology and infrastructure.
Similar to crop production, livestock and fish production are expected by the OECD and FAO to derive much of their predicted growth from productivity improvements. In livestock farming, this improvement will mainly be achieved through more intensive feeding methods and genetic enhancements.
It is expected that farmed fish production will surpass wild fish catch within five years and will account for more than half of total fish production within ten years.
The experts emphasize the significant role agriculture plays in climate change. The carbon intensity of agricultural production is likely to decrease relatively, as direct greenhouse gas emissions will increase more slowly than production growth.
Furthermore, the global amount of food available per person is expected to increase by an average of 4%. However, this global average conceals disparities between countries and continents: a great deal of food is still wasted worldwide while billions of people continue to suffer from hunger.
Consumers in middle-income countries are expected to increase their food consumption the most, while nutrition in low-income countries is anticipated to remain largely unchanged.
Due to growing health and environmental awareness, meat consumption per capita is not expected to rise further, with consumers increasingly opting for poultry and dairy products instead of red meat, they anticipate.