Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev expects recovery in pork production in several regions in the upcoming half-year. He reportedly told this to President Putin during a meeting, according to the Russian financial magazine Agroinvestor.
According to Patrushev, his agricultural department expects the poultry sector to reach 2020 performance levels by the end of this year. For beef, the ministry even forecasts a production increase of about 1.5%, as shown in the transcript on the Kremlin's website.
A source from the poultry industry, who wished to remain anonymous and spoke to Agroinvestor, doubts the predictions of recovery in poultry meat production. He believes a decline of 1.5% compared to last year is more likely. This year, avian flu and import problems with hatching eggs led to a sharp decrease in poultry volumes.
According to figures from the Union of Poultry Producers, announced during a recent webinar, poultry meat production in slaughter weight was 3.6 million tons, which is 1.7% less than in the same period of 2020.
To support the capacity of the meat industry and stabilize prices, import restrictions are being imposed on frozen pork up to 100 thousand tons and on frozen beef up to 200 thousand tons, Patrushev said. This issue is soon to be discussed at the next meeting of the Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission.
Neighboring Kazakhstan is also taking measures to curb rising food prices. A six-month export ban on cattle and small livestock will be in effect. The measure, effective from the end of December, aims to prevent further increases in meat prices on the domestic market. From early 2021 until November, prices for beef rose by 15% and for lamb by 21%. At the same time, Kazakhstan has suspended the export of potatoes and carrots from the country for three months.
According to Russian experts, food imports in Russia are currently roughly equal to exports. According to Alexander Korbut, vice president of the Russian Grain Union (RGU), Russia will increase imports of bananas, coffee, tea, apples, early vegetables, and other products this year. "From my point of view, this is very natural: imports are not a factor displacing Russian products or undermining our own food security. Imports ensure market saturation," he says.
He adds that the volume of Russian imports depends on what happens with the population's income: if incomes rise, imports will increase as well. The situation with the ruble will also have an impact. Currently, the exchange rate is becoming stronger, which is expected to stimulate importers.