Russia is no longer targeting only energy supplies and transport links but also businesses. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the economy is likely to shrink by 0.4 percent this year. Earlier projections expected growth of 1.8 percent.
Exhausted
Ukrainian entrepreneurs consider 2026 their toughest year of war. Businesses are struggling with staff shortages, depleted inventories, and a shrinking market. Investments are being postponed or carried out in smaller steps. Some companies are spreading their production across multiple locations to mitigate the impact of Russian attacks.
The steel industry is particularly hard hit. Large factories of Metinvest, ArcelorMittal, and Interpipe have halted production. This has led to shortages of construction steel and other materials. Dependence on foreign suppliers is increasing, while transport costs and delivery times are rising.
More Imports
Imports now account for nearly 47 percent of Ukrainian steel consumption, compared to less than 23 percent before the large-scale invasion. China and Turkey have become important suppliers. The shortages complicate construction projects and increase reconstruction costs, reports the Ukrainian business newspaper UBN.
Public finances are also under strain. In October, Ukraine issued fewer domestic government bonds than it had to redeem. At the same time, companies have difficulty obtaining credit and insurance against war damage, according to UBN.
ICT Growth
Yet some sectors continue to grow. Exports of Ukrainian computer services rose by four percent in the first eight months of 2026 to 4.46 billion dollars. This sector now accounts for one-eighth of all export revenues, reports UBN.
European support remains important. Finland has arranged a financing scheme of 240 million euros with the European Commission. The Netherlands will provide 1.2 billion euros over the next three years for non-military aid, including energy supply, industrial production, and reconstruction.
Uncertain
Uncertainty is increasing for 2027. Ukraine expects to need tens of billions of euros more for defense. Businesses are preparing for the continuation of the war, while Western financing is becoming increasingly crucial to sustain the economy and essential government services.
