The study acknowledges that the use of chemical agents in agriculture is beneficial for the stability of food production, but poses a long-term threat to biodiversity and soil quality.
The study on the 'drivers' of both production and use was announced last year in response to disrupted global grain supplies. Earlier, the European Commission opposed calls to postpone parts of the Green Deal and Farm to Fork strategies, stating that food supply is not at risk.
The study published this week focuses on dozens of factors ('drivers') that, according to the researchers, influence global food supply. The report comes shortly after EU agriculture ministers again requested additional research, dissatisfied with the results of earlier studies.
The newly published study notes in a footnote that it does not replace previous reports.
The working document further emphasizes that when food becomes scarcer, pressure increases on soil fertility, climate, biodiversity, and water availability. If environmental and climate issues are not addressed quickly, supply bottlenecks may arise, the European Commission stresses. Ultimately, the costs of doing nothing are greater than the costs of greening the food chain.
The EU Commission points to a potential loss of 9 billion euros in the agricultural sector due to expected drought by 2030 alone. Without policy changes, crop yields in arable farming are projected to decrease by 4.5 percent in 2030. With adequate environmental and climate policies, the yield decline in 2030 would be only 2.4 percent, according to the research.
A reduction in the use of hazardous pesticides would be important to preserve biodiversity and protect insects. According to the European Commission, this is possible without income loss. However, alternative active substances would need to be available, and disease-resistant varieties should enter the market through new genomic techniques.