There is also insufficient majority for a ten-year extension of the usage permit.
Comparative research on the voting behavior of the 27 EU countries shows that 18 of the 27 member states agreed to the European proposal for extension, including some technical restrictions. This Commission proposal also allows EU countries to impose their own additional conditions. Although these 18 countries number more than the required 15 countries (=55%), together they do not reach the required 65% of the EU population, but only 55.03%.
Last Friday, six countries abstained from voting: France, Germany, Bulgaria, Belgium, Malta, and the Netherlands, together accounting for 41.96% of the EU population. Only three countries (Croatia, Austria, and Luxembourg) were clearly against the Commission proposal, (3.01%).
This means that even if all six abstainers were to switch to voting against, these nine countries together still would not reach the 65% population threshold, nor the required 15 countries. Thus, a glyphosate blockade within the EU is currently out of the question, unless new scientific evidence about harmfulness emerges in the coming years.
Furthermore, if four of the abstainers (the Netherlands, Malta, Belgium, Bulgaria) were to switch to the in-favor camp, the Commission proposal still would not reach the required 65%. These four relatively small countries together do not make up the missing 9.97% of the population. Adema therefore cannot help the opponents reach a majority. Only France (15%) and Germany (18.5%) are each large enough to help bring the proposal to a majority.
Germany is not expected to switch from abstention to in favor because the German traffic-light coalition is internally too divided on the matter. This is a similar situation to Belgium and the Netherlands, which also have substantive reasons to abstain.
France, on the other hand, has made it clear in recent years that agriculture will still need glyphosate for the time being, but in a strongly limited manner. The French already apply a system where a farmer may not use more than a certain number of kilograms per hectare, and only in ecologically non-vulnerable areas. Moreover, France considers a new ten-year approval period too long, and wants limited use for a maximum of seven years.
Pascal Canfin (Renew), chair of the European Parliament’s environment committee, called on Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last weekend to withdraw the 'unacceptable proposal' and to come back with amendments. The French liberal Canfin is considered a loyal ally of the liberal En Marche party of French President Macron.
A spokesperson for the European Commission confirmed on Friday that a “dialogue” can still take place between member states to reach a compromise.