Agriculture ministers do not formally set their governments’ trade policies, but they are among the fiercest critics of the pact, which would open EU markets to more beef and poultry from the Mercosur countries Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay.
The agri-ministers are especially curious whether Italy and France are willing to drop their objections to the agreement with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. Both countries have taken a critical stance for years, but signals from recent days point to a possibly more flexible approach. However, the political situation in France (fall of the Bayrou government) could again cause delays.
Farming organizations fear the deal will flood their markets with cheaper meat and dairy products. At the same time, the European Commission states that it has solutions ready, such as a significantly expanded compensation fund, to offset losses for farmers.
Although agriculture ministers do not formally decide on trade issues, their deliberations in Copenhagen are followed closely. Their judgment serves as a political barometer. Yet most of their attention is focused on the multiannual financing of the Common Agricultural Policy.
Viewed in that light, Mercosur is just “a small matter we actually should have dealt with much earlier,” as an EU official said in the corridors. At the same time, the discussion about the European multiannual budget for 2028-2034 is underway. It includes a substantial cut in the agriculture budget, from about €380 billion to around €300 billion.
The European Council has already taken steps to simplify agricultural policy. This involves, among other things, reducing administrative burdens and creating more room for national interpretation. The Danish presidency emphasizes modernization and greening, but also maintaining competitiveness.
The future of Ukraine within the EU also features prominently in the political debate. The country is considered an important producer of grain and other agricultural crops. Possible accession would profoundly change the dynamics within European agriculture. Especially Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic see this as a threat and are trying to slow the process.
The convergence of all these issues – the Mercosur agreement, the new budget, internal reforms, and possible enlargement with Ukraine – makes the meeting in Copenhagen an important moment. What is currently an informal consultation will prove to be guiding in the coming months for the future of European agricultural policy.