Earlier, the agriculture committee and the fisheries committee already rejected the proposal, on which the environment committee must now pass judgment. This would be the first time a Commission proposal is actually rejected by the parliament.
The Christian Democrats (EPP/CDA) rejected the proposal outright at the very last moment, and the conservatives (ECR/SGP) and right-wing groups (ID/FvD/PVV) have also said they will vote against it. The Greens, United Left, and the S&D/PvdA are in favor, while the liberal Renew (VVD/D66) are divided.
The environment committee consists of 88 MEPs. According to EPP group leader Manfred Weber, the current vote split is 44 against and 44 in favor.
Last year, Weber sharpened his position on the Green Deal and environmental laws in agriculture: in 2019 he still had to support this project of Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans because the Green Deal had also been established with the support of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. That Commission came about partly due to the support of then Chancellor Angela Merkel.
But since the German Christian Democrats lost the 2021 federal elections and moved into opposition, Weber has shifted politically to the right. When Brussels does something right, he speaks kindly about the von der Leyen Commission, but when Brussels does something wrong, he blames Vice-President Timmermans, observed a Dutch MEP.
On Thursday, the vote is not on the nature restoration law itself but on the proposal from the agriculture and fisheries committees to reject that law. There are also votes scheduled on dozens of amendments, but these will only be considered if the project is not dismissed at the first vote. Any possible rejection would then be addressed in the full parliamentary session in July.
The chair of the environment committee, French liberal Pascal Canfin, said that Weber threatened EPP members with expulsion from the group if they vote in favor of the nature restoration law on Thursday. This is denied within the EPP, although several sources say the group is doing everything possible to mobilize members and substitutes to get the EPP position approved.
Within the social-democratic S&D/PvdA group, Mohammed Chahim is convinced there is a majority for the nature restoration law. “I know of a few EPP members who want to vote for the law,” he said. It is known that one Eastern European MEP from the EPP/CDA group wants to vote in favor of the nature restoration law. Within the divided Renew/VVD/D66 group, there are reportedly two or three waverers.
In theory, the European Commission could at the very last moment on Wednesday come forward with some sort of compromise, concession, or amendment proposal, but no such signals are coming from the offices of Timmermans and his chief of staff Diederik Samson. Moreover, Brussels has already made concessions and softened many parts.
The European Commission could also still temporarily remove their controversial proposal from the agenda, but that would not cancel the rejection already made by the agriculture and fisheries committees.
In theory, the environment committee could also decide on Thursday morning not to proceed to a vote, but to "adjourn" the vote so that a rejection of the agriculture and fisheries committees could be voted on "at a later date and time" (= postponement; buying time).