The chances of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson winning the parliamentary elections on Thursday are greater than those of Labour or the LibDems winning. But this will not be because the Conservatives have such an attractive election program, rather because most Britons are more than fed up with the Brexit nonsense and want to get rid of it as soon as possible.
Furthermore, for most Britons there is no alternative. First of all, the person of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is too controversial. He is hated by almost everyone, even by his own party members. He is the most unloved politician of the past century. Additionally, Labour’s Brexit plan will lead to more negotiations with Brussels, possibly cause a two- or three-year delay, and voters may still get to vote on it in a referendum. This means Johnson has succeeded in his aim: these elections are mainly about Brexit, preferably as soon as possible…
Increasingly, studies show that giving up the economic securities of the current single EU market in exchange for the uncertainties of new British trade agreements is harmful to the British economy. And that for many years. Yet a large part of the electorate apparently accepts this.
The future looks seemingly rosy for the British prime minister. His Conservative Party leads comfortably in the polls and could even count on 359 of the 650 seats. The largest opposition party, Labour, would remain at 211 seats. The prime minister intends to push his Brexit deal through parliament quickly, before the end of January, if he wins the elections. Whether the European Parliament in Strasbourg will eventually approve it is a very different matter. We will just have to wait and see.
Nevertheless, Johnson is probably not counting his chickens yet. His predecessor Theresa May overplayed her hand with early elections in 2017. The Conservatives were also doing well in the polls then, but still lost their parliamentary majority. There is also a chance that no party will gain a majority. This happened both in 2017 and 2010, when the Conservatives formed a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
This time it is very much in question whether Johnson can call on other major parties for support. Both the Scottish SNP and the Liberal Democrats, the third and fourth parties in the country, are anti-Brexit and anti-Tory.
Labour seems to have better cards to establish a tolerance agreement in a divided House of Commons. The Scottish nationalists are willing to support a Labour government under conditions. This would include, among other things, a new referendum on Scottish independence. Cooperation with the LibDems is probably more difficult, as party leader Jo Swinson has made clear that she absolutely does not want Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister.
According to an analyst from the Financial Times, it should not be forgotten that currently there is no majority in favor anywhere in Great Britain. They do know what they don’t want, but not what they do want. The man and woman on the street are as divided as the parliament and the country, and dividing the country simply into ‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’ is a simplification that is becoming increasingly unsustainable.
Thus, for most voters these elections are primarily about feelings and opinions and impressions and (pre)judgments, and not about facts and certainties and feasibilities.