The latest polls give Babiš’ ANO party a clear lead of around thirty percent. This puts him ten percentage points ahead of the center-right governing coalition led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala. However, no party seems to be heading for a majority, making the formation of a coalition cabinet inevitably complex.
Babiš is campaigning with promises of tax cuts and increased spending. He also profiles himself with themes associated with Eurosceptic and right-wing parties. For example, he wants to end the supply of Czech ammunition to Ukraine and opposes the European Union’s green policies. At the same time, he emphasizes that he does not seek a referendum on EU or NATO membership.
Dissatisfaction in the country plays into his hands. Many Czechs are struggling with high inflation, expensive energy, and the effects of unpopular pension system reforms. These social and economic concerns enhance the appeal of Babiš’ populist message and widen the gap between the opposition and the current government.
A complicating factor is Babiš’ business background. As owner of Agrofert, one of the largest agricultural and food conglomerates in the Czech Republic, he has long been under fire for conflicts of interest. Agrofert includes more than two hundred companies and holds a dominant position in the food chain, from poultry and dairy to bakeries and fertilizers. This draws sharp criticism from his opponents.
Shortly before the elections, the issue gained new momentum. The Czech government obliged Agrofert to repay more than 200 million euros in (mostly European) agricultural subsidies. According to the court, Babiš retained actual control despite trust arrangements, rendering the subsidies unlawful. Babiš disputes this, claiming the government is abusing the case for political gain.
In addition to this financial dossier, a reopened criminal case is also in play concerning an EU subsidy of two million euros for the so-called Stork’s Nest project. The Supreme Court overturned an earlier acquittal and ordered the lower court to reassess the case. This once again casts a legal shadow over his possible premiership.
Previous scandals, such as the “toast affair” involving subsidies for bread production and revelations in the Pandora Papers about a hidden villa purchase, further tarnish his controversial reputation. The European Commission has also noted that Babiš violated rules on conflicts of interest in the past and that subsidies to Agrofert have been unlawful since 2017.
The Czech elections thus revolve not only around domestic politics but also the relationship between Prague and Brussels. The outcome will be decisive for the Czech Republic’s position in the European Union and for the political fate of Andrej Babiš.