The ballot is seen as an existential choice for the former Soviet republic with 2.4 million inhabitants, wedged between Romania and the war-torn Ukraine. The Transnistria province east of the Dniester river has been occupied by Russian troops for many years.
President Maia Sandu and her pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity want to continue the reform path towards the EU, while the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc poses a serious challenge.
The EU has visibly increased its support in recent weeks. Sandu received a standing ovation from MEPs in Strasbourg and appeared in the capital Chisinau alongside Emmanuel Macron. Macron promised to defend Moldova's sovereignty against pressure from Moscow. Shortly thereafter, Brussels released nearly nineteen million euros as part of a larger reform fund.
The upcoming election result is regarded as a litmus test for whether Brussels can still offer an attractive alternative in the face of Russian pressure. A victory for the pro-Russian opposition would halt Moldova's accession negotiations and grant the Kremlin a symbolic win at the EU border.
Moldovan authorities are meanwhile warning of large-scale interference from Russia. According to them, hundreds of millions of euros have been funneled into the country to buy votes and sow unrest. Campaigns on social media platforms such as TikTok and Telegram have been used to portray Prime Minister Sandu as an authoritarian leader and to spread rumors about a possible deployment of EU troops.
Networks affiliated with oligarch Ilan Shor play a key role in this. He was previously sanctioned by Brussels for his involvement in large-scale corruption. According to authorities, these groups employ bot-driven propaganda to influence public debate and fuel distrust against Europe.
Uncertainty also prevails in the Transnistria region, which declared independence in the 1990s but is not recognized internationally by any country. Inhabitants are divided over their loyalty and view both Chisinau and Moscow with suspicion. Their participation in the vote could partly determine the outcome.
International attention is high. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized at the United Nations that Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova. Sandu herself described the stakes of the elections as existential in the European Parliament. According to her, the European path is not only about values but about survival.