According to the European Commission's projections, European cow milk production will continue to grow over the next nine years to 162 million tons. Cheese will benefit the most from the additional milk produced.
European cow milk production will increase by 0.6% per year, according to figures from a study published by the European Commission last week. Cheese production will absorb 30% of the extra EU milk volumes.
By 2030, the average production level in the European Union will continue to rise to 8,300 kg per cow, as productivity differences between EU countries shrink, according to the report.
However, employment in the milk sector is expected to decline. The report mentions a reduction in staff numbers by approximately 7% compared to 2020.
The share of organic milk production is expected to reach 10% in 2030, compared to 3.5% in 2018. Other systems, such as those dependent on grazing or non-GMO feed, could also make progress, say the EU experts.
The EU expects growth in New Zealand to remain limited to 0.4% per year until 2030. In the United States, growth is expected to be 0.8% per year.
At the same time, the value of European Union exports is expected to increase by about 3% per year. Half of this growth will come from cheese trade, followed by skimmed milk powder (32%).
In the coming ten years, more dairy products might come from other production areas such as South America. “Although these countries are likely to compete in strongly price-oriented markets, high added-value products such as cheese and butter will be dominated by the European Union, New Zealand, and partially by the United States.