A majority in favor does not mean Iceland will become an EU member. The government opts for a two-step process. First, the population decides whether Reykjavik should resume negotiations with Brussels. If accession terms emerge from those talks, they will be submitted to the public in a second national referendum.
Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 and started negotiations a year later. Those talks were suspended in 2013 after a new, eurosceptic government took office. This brought a temporary end to approximately four years of discussions on joining the Union.
Threat of War
The war in Ukraine has rekindled the debate about Iceland’s position in Europe. The deteriorating international security situation is cited as one of the reasons why closer European cooperation has again become a prominent political agenda item.
Promotion
Developments concerning Greenland also play a role. The strategic future of the North Atlantic and Arctic region has sharpened the discussion about Iceland’s position and its relationship with Europe. As a result, the referendum is viewed not only from an economic perspective but also from a security standpoint.
Economic
Rising living costs also factor in. Economic uncertainty has increased interest in joining the EU. Polls indicate growing support for closer ties, but the population remains divided, and the referendum outcome could be close.
One of the main obstacles remains the fishing industry. This sector is important for Iceland, while EU membership would require agreements on fishing quotas, fishing grounds, and the joint European fisheries policy. Agriculture is also mentioned as a sensitive area in potential new negotiations.
EEA and Schengen
Iceland is already closely connected to the European Union. Through the European Economic Area, it participates in the internal market and already applies many European rules. The country is also part of the Schengen Area without being an EU member itself.
The vote thus also concerns sovereignty. Concerns about national control over natural resources and decision-making are weighed against arguments for deeper European economic and strategic cooperation. If a majority supports resuming talks, the actual negotiation process will only then begin. Afterward, Icelanders can individually decide whether the finalized terms are sufficient to actually join the EU.